!css

Can trade war escalation trigger the end of the current business cycle?

When the US imposed trade tariffs of 25% on imported steel, 10% on imported aluminium imports and threatened a 10% tariff on all imported Chinese goods into the US, the EU and China retaliated with their own counter-tariffs.

A domino effect is now in progress with the stock prices of car manufacturers, industrials, metals and mining already under significant pressure. The Renminbi is also under pressure as the market expects the Chinese economy to be hit adversely should the trade war gather pace.

The US consumer is unlikely to come out of this confrontation unscathed as the price of goods and services could rise materially given the global nature of supply chains. Furthermore, the US economy is 85% through its current business cycle, with forecasts indicating the fairly long cycle will end in 2019/2020.

If your cost of funding has increased because of an over-leveraged balance sheet due to cheap debt in a low yield environment, a hedging solution such as Societe Generale’s new liquid and scalable ‘Thematic Basket’, allowing investors to hedge the consequences of a global trade war with greater precision than using sector or country indices, might be a good solution.

Find out how to make Markets work in your favour through the expertise of our Global Markets team, for all your investment and hedging needs*.

(*The value of your investment can go up or down)

Contact one of our experts

Kokou Agbo-Bloua
View profile

Kokou Agbo-Bloua

Managing Director, Global Head of Flow Strategy & Solution, Financial Engineering
Kokou Agbo-Bloua
Kokou Agbo-Bloua

Kokou Agbo-Bloua

Managing Director, Global Head of Flow Strategy & Solution, Financial Engineering

Societe Generale

Kokou Agbo-Bloua leads a global team of 20 financial engineers focused on the generation of differentiated trade ideas, unique implementations and hedging solutions across asset classes for hedge funds, global macro, asset managers and institutions.

Kokou joined SG CIB in 2014 and was most recently Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy Europe at BNPP in London for 4 years, where he was responsible for European fundamental equity strategy, derivatives parameters, global cross-asset themes and convertible bonds strategy. He was team leader of five senior strategists ranked #1 for idea generation by Greenwich survey & Derivatives Intelligence. Prior to this, he started his career on the trading side: Executive Director at JP Morgan from 2009-2010 and from 2000 to 2008 he was a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS). He managed directional long/short, convertible bonds and volatility portfolios across asset classes. 

Born in Togo and educated in China, where he spent 12 years of his life, Kokou Agbo-Bloua graduated with an MSc in Management from HEC School of Management in Paris in 2002, and completed his post-graduate studies in Finance at the Anderson School of Management at UCLA. He is frequently quoted in the financial press and is a regular guest speaker on the BBC, Bloomberg and CNBC.

View profile

Societe Generale

Societe Generale is a French credit institution (Bank - Investment services provider) authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (the French Prudential Control and Resolution Authority - ACPR), and under the prudential supervision of the European Central Bank- ECB. Societe Generale is a French Société Anonyme (limited company) with share capital of € 1 009 641 617,50, as of January 2017, whose registered Head office is located at 29 boulevard Haussman – 75009 PARIS (France), registered with the Paris Trade and Companies Registry under number 552 120 222. This document may be issued in the U.K. by the London Branch of Societe Generale (SGLB). SGLB as a U.K. branch is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.

Important disclaimer

This Communication is provided for general information purposes only and is not construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments, and doesn’t constitute research information and/or recommendations. It is intended for a privileged and confidential use only by Societe Generale’s Eligible Counterparties and Professio­nal Clients or prospect to which it is made available by Societe Generale. This Communication is not intended to be directed at retail clients. The content of this Com­munication is prevailing as at the date of publication and is subject to change, without notice, to reflect sub­sequent developments. For Information on data and/or figures drawn from external sources and integrated into this Communication: the accuracy, completeness or rele­vance of the information which has been drawn from ex­ternal sources is not guaranteed although it is drawn from sources reasonably believed to be reliable. No liability is accepted by Societe Generale that may arise from any use of this material. This Communication and its contents are confidential and proprietary to Societe Generale, and no part of this document or its subject matter may be reproduced, disseminated or disclosed to any third party without the prior written approval of Societe Generale. The distribution of this Communication in other jurisdic­tions outside of EEA (European Economic Area) may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.